Will it snow in Seattle this year? Here's what we know
SEATTLE - As the seasons shift, many Seattleites are wondering: will it snow this year?
According to FOX 13 Seattle Chief Meteorologist Brian MacMillan, the answer hinges on a weak La Niña weather pattern, which could bring some snow — but not necessarily a repeat of past "Snowmageddon" events.
Keep reading to learn more about this year's La Niña pattern and how much snow the greater Seattle area could see this winter.
What is La Niña, and what does it mean for Seattle?
A La Niña winter occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, influencing global weather patterns. In the Pacific Northwest, a strong La Niña typically brings cooler and wetter conditions, increasing the chances of snow. However, this winter’s weak La Niña presents a slightly different picture.
"In a weak La Niña, like this year's, temperatures may be a little closer to average with more rain to start the season," says MacMillan. "Then, we often see cooler temperatures and wet conditions in the second half of winter, leading to more mountain snow."
A pedestrian makes his way across a snow-covered Pike Street on Jan. 18, 2012, in Seattle, Wash. (Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Seattle's snowy history during La Niña winters
Looking back at the past 10 La Niña winters in Seattle, five of them brought significant snowfall, with over 10 inches accumulating during the season. One notable example was the winter of 2020-2021, which saw more than a foot of snow blanket the city.
Lowland snow, however, is never guaranteed. While the odds of snow increase during a La Niña winter, MacMillan cautions that other factors, like specific storm tracks and temperatures, play a significant role.
"Over the past 10 La Niña winters in Seattle, half of those have brought big snow totals to the lowlands," says MacMillan. "Lowland snow is not a guarantee this winter, but the chances are better when we have a La Niña winter like this one."
A graphic showing snow totals over the last La Niña winters in Seattle, Wash.
What about the mountains?
If you're a fan of skiing or snowboarding, this winter could be promising. Weak La Niña patterns often lead to a robust mountain snowpack, benefiting both winter sports enthusiasts and the region’s water resources.
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While it’s too early to predict exactly how much snow Seattle will see, historical trends suggest we may get at least one or two significant snow events. Whether it’s a light dusting or a heavier accumulation, Seattleites should stay prepared for winter weather.
For more updates on weather patterns and snow forecasts, keep an eye on FOX 13 Seattle.
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