Commentary: Feelings aside, M’s projections give them best chance to win AL West since 2015

Well, we’ve made it. Another Mariners Opening Day upon us, just three days away.

Which means the range of emotions likely runs the full gamut. There's a great number of folks feeling like a scorned lover who once again felt betrayed all offseason from the lack of free agent moves. There are the ultimate troopers who find a way to look at this season through rose-colored glasses. And then there are those who feel both - or neither - or somewhere in between.

So tonight, I’m setting all feelings and emotions aside and looking at this team through as neutral a lens as I can: By deferring to the oddsmakers in Vegas. 

And based on that alone, I can say the Mariners have the best chance of winning the division than they’ve had in ten years. 

What do I mean? Well, you don’t need to look any further than preseason over/under win totals for the M’s and everyone else in their division per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Astros and Rangers have the highest over/under total at 86.5 wins. Seattle is just one behind at 85.5 wins. The gap between the M’s and a projected divisional winner hasn’t been this close since 2015, when Seattle and the Angels were both projected to win 87 games.  

For perspective, over the last six full seasons, Houston has been projected to win the division. During that span, the Astros preseason over/under total in Vegas has been an average of 13 wins more than the M’s. This year, it’s only one.

And frankly, look at the over/under win totals for the top ten teams in the American League this season. Just six games separates them, from the Yankees (88.5) down to the Royals and Guardians (82.5), and the Mariners are right in the middle. It means Seattle should be right in the mix for one of three Wild Card berths if the division doesn’t go their way. 

The point is this: We can all be swayed by our biases, and there’s no questioning the negativity that has permeated a good portion of this fan base the last few months. 

But the fact remains, when it comes to preseason projections: the M’s are beneficiaries of significantly more parity within their own division AND the American League.

And that means despite a lower over/under win total for the Mariners than each of the last two seasons, the chances of a playoff berth are actually greater. And for a team built on pitching, most of us are simply hoping for a spot in the postseason just to see what can happen from there.

Are we setting ourselves up for more disappointment? Maybe, I sure hope not.

But Vegas doesn’t base its decisions on feelings or emotions, or decades of futility or ownership that’s seemingly unwilling have a Top Ten payroll.  

And what it’s telling us now is that, when it comes to playoff baseball, the M’s have as good a chance as they’ve had in a long while.